2021.11.08

CNBC SPY
Hilariously, the housing meltdown looks mild when you pull back to SPY at $469. It wasn't mild.

So everyone's agreed there's going to be a market pullback, right? Any day now. Yeah, I know, bears have successfully predicted 4 out of the last 20 crashes. If this is sustainable, I'll eat my modest gains and some crow. So let's set that aside and assume we'll drill *at some point*.

But let's not be bearish aside from accepting bear facts, I won't try to predict if the catalyst will be China or interest rates or retail investors. Let's talk about bull things, since this was initiated by someone asking me what my long term plays are.

They are nothing right now (well, individual bonds and SPCE), because the falling tide carries all boats. I'm not sitting in cash, of course, I'm buying energy dips, commodities, Costco, and positions I can sell calls on. I'm biding my time for - to paraphrase one of the founders of my company where that green star is shown above - the buying opportunity of a lifetime.

Here I'll use the rote disclaimer that this is information, not advice. I'm a cautious investor, forged in the fires of the subprime meltdown. I also don't do this for a living; just supplemental income and fun. But I know a bit about tech and I read some stuff.

DCA people will say I should buy/hold through the dip. That's fine for them, here's why I won't:
Saturn V rocket stylized style transfer stonks

So what do I plan to buy? I have some time to build the list, but here are my starters...

Ticker(s) DD
SOFI Warren Buffet says it's better to buy a good company at a fair price than a fair company at a good price. According to Jes, SOFI is great. They IPOed somewhat recently and have been expanding their business from peer-to-peer financing into banking and stonks.
MJ et al Full legalization is inevitable right? It's not a first term thing unless Biden is backed into a corner. As states legalize, the sector should grow. I prefer ETFs to limit exposure to any company that could be shut down by the feds on a whim.
NVDA The future is vector compute. For gaming, for graphics, for crypto, for machine learning; nVidia's only potential competitor is AMD. If graphics processors weren't enough, nVidia may someday finish acquiring ARM (all things mobile/embedded).
SMH Silicon is going in everything. TSMC is an obvious player here, but SMH gives wider exposure.
BATT It's hard to get exposure to battery mining/production without trading futures. Needless to say batteries are kind of a big deal.
JNK et al If there is a pullback, we could see widespread bankruptcy and defaults on high yield bonds. This could create a buying opportunity for junk bond ETFs that suddenly tank.
URA Uranium gang. A lot of countries and companies have made pledges to reduce emissions. I expect this to take the form of loudly-advertised wind and solar with lots of whisper-soft conversion to nuclear.
SPY/SPX/QQQ Of course, the beauty of a full-market pullback is that you can get into the high-IV ETFs and sell covered calls as you go up.