Source.

My political trainwreck du jour is the stuff going on with OPM and DOGE.

Quick recap

1. Years ago a bunch of former Trump staffers created a thing called Project 2025 that outlined, among other things, a conservative takeover of the civil services.
2. During the campaign Trump denied association with P2025 but, well, that means very little.
3. After winning the election, Trump announced Elon and Vivek would head up the team responsible for slimming down the government.

Long ago we had the spoils system, where an incoming administration could clean house and appoint loyal followers to government jobs. That largely ended with civil service reform after which, say, a meteorologist could have a stable USG career of making sure planes don't fly into thunderstorms. The president can still clean out most agency leaders but your everyday food inspector doesn't have to find a new job every four years. P2025 didn't like that, they'd prefer someone who signed up at a state fair predict microbursts and do food inspections and F-35 maintenance.

Fixing the deficit by cutting 5% of the budget by 10%

Source.

The on-again/off-again tariff wars and wild claims of annexing sovereign countries could be real. They could also be the key jingling that we've seen so much with both Trump and Musk. Behind the distraction, the self-styled 'dark maga' boss and a team of tech kids in their 20s have made quite a stir with the civil services. Musk has basically followed his Twitter script, even borrowing the email subject 'Fork in the road' which I presume is a product of him saying he wanted people to 'fork off' and thought it'd be clever. The USG isn't Twitter though. Civil servants aren't at-will employees and their funding source is Congress, not the executive. But the RIF began with the traditional carrot/stick approach:

• Trump announced RTO for most government positions, a tactic employed by a variety of tech companies that overhired during the covid stimulus orgy.
• DOGE, through OPM, offered paychecks through the end of the fiscal year to any non-defense personnel that voluntarily resign.

As of today, about 1% of feds have accepted the offer although it's unclear how many were planning to retire anyway. Additionally, probationary employees seem to be completely out of luck, and I'm not sure if they are in that 1%.

R*ddit

Reddit default front page.

A lot of this has played out on Reddit where /r/fednews has posted fork emails, office rumors, and rants. The initial fork email was heavily criticized for not using fedspeak - precise terms, US Code citations, and typical email window dressing. Surprisingly, it didn't even look like it'd pass legal or HR muster for wide-distribution company email, let alone a RIF solicitation sent to millions. DOGE seemingly realized the same thing and has sent numerous follow-up emails, including one that encouraged govvies to leave their 'low productivity' public sector jobs for 'high productivity' private industry careers.

tossemoutplease

The use of the line "likely unlawful" is screaming AI to me. They honed the prompts and outputs over a few tries but didn't actually read it closely or with a lawyer. Then again, that's the point. Shove shit out and see what sticks and what doesn't. It'll be interesting to see the union challenge in the courts in the next 72 hours, because this is the big one. They didn't just make this about RTO, this was about the broader CBA authority.

Of course, Reddit admins and sitewide moderation system are terrible so when the identities of the DOGE Musketeers made news, comments listing their names were sometimes removed and sometimes left alone:

Source.

The Reddit admin response even included a temporary, complete takedown of one of the most popular subreddits.


I don't know if there's the same vibrant discussion on other social media platforms but WaPo and NBC News stopped by to solicit insider info.

They keep forking up

Earlier I alluded to follow-up emails from DOGE, revising their offer and trying to make it sound more legitimate.

Progressive_Insanity

They provided an unsigned "example" agreement. They are in this subreddit, reading everyone's concerns, then putting them in copy-pasted emails to every agency for them to send out. These people are literally arguing with redditors through official agency correspondence. Absolute comedy.

The DOGE team also seems to be paying attention to the heretofore-obscure sub. The follow-up fork emails have stressed key concerns about the legality and legitimacy of the offer and even included US code citations. One seemingly crucial point came to light though:

Source. Officially posted here.

After Fed/Redditors pointed out a variety of deficiencies with the "reply to resign" paradigm, DOGE provided an agreement document in which the resigning party appears to waive all avenues of legal recourse. Avenues which might not be there to begin with:

yasssssplease

There's actually a 1990 scotus case that says that even if you get erroneous information from OPM, you're not entitled to any benefits if not allowed by statute. https://www.oyez.org/cases/1989/88-1943

Source. (Update 2/5) Seems like Elon indeed went full "trust me, bro".

Outlook

The resignation deadline is Thursday - at the moment anyway. It's unclear if Trump's plan is to simply do a big RIF or if he expects to get a 2026 budget that is the same as the 2025 budget, throw up his hands, and say, "guess we have to hire all those people on the P2025 list".

(Update 2/5) Director Ratcliffe's choice of words strongly suggests they plan not to cut the CIA's personnel budget but rather replace career IC people. It's not surprising.

There are - and will be - numerous court battles and some will undoubtedly land on John Roberts's desk. Questions include:

• Is RTO compliant with the telework act?
• Is the fork letter legal, specifically committing funds that are not yet available as well as putting public employees on long term administrative leave?
• Is the @all email server legal?
• Are the contract's weasel clauses legal?
• How does all of the above apply to union positions?

As things stand, it looks like the administration will have to take additional measures to meet their RIF/replacement targets. Perhaps most of the federal government is going to end up on a PIP. Trump may try his hand at impoundment and leave it to SCOTUS to continue their creativity streak.

It's just so enthralling.

katalysis

My Chinese friend made an interesting remark: its funny to see what trump doing rn is basically what Xi did when he was in power at the beginning. challenge all the departments for efficiency and anti corruption, then he fired those ppl not loyal to him and replaced by his own followers

Pristine-Patient-262

I'm eligible for VERA and I'm definitely NOT retiring or taking the offer. In the words of RATM: Fuck you I won't do what you tell me!

Okay two things, Paul Ryan. First, you are the machine. You might be awesome - I have no idea - but you're still the machine referred to in that song. Second, opting not to take a buyout offer is not civil disobedience.

Related / internal

Related / external