It's a finpost, this is just for illustrative purposes.

Two big things went down last night. First, treasury yields shot up, indicating someone big - like China or an institutional - had dumped a bunch of bonds. Second, retaliatory tariffs went into effect at midnight.

So it was weird that the market started the day flat. The president tweeted that it would be a good time to "buy!!! djt". It's unclear if it was punctuated as intended which probably means it was intentionally unclear.

Poor_Life-choices42

Only a matter of time before Kid Rock is brought onto CNBC to explain how tariffs were successful for a 4 year period back in 1677.

The previous tariff extensions had come hours before, then hours after the measures took effect. At market open we were eight hours past the midnight activation of the escalatory tariffs, meaning we were deeper into it than the previous spats with just Canada and Mexico. The previous day had started up 3-4% and ended the inverse of that so I was wary of a rugpull.

oatmeal-claypole

seen on twitter How it appears to me right now (would be happy to be wrong): Trump doesn't want to negotiate Fed becoming irrelevant to escalating situation Only thing that stops this train is legislative or judicial intervention We are a lot more pain away from that

The news dropped in the early afternoon: retaliatory tariffs on everyone except China would be pushed right 90 days. The market immediately clawed back all but a few percent of its post-Liberation Day losses.

abroadbroadband

Nobody negotiates like him, that's for sure The guy just negotiated with himself for a week and changed his mind

"Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured."

miata_only

Call volume spiked like hell before the tweet. I'm sure it was just a coincidence though, you guys.

It'll be interested to see the tax returns of people connected to the president.

31andnotdone

so the fake news leak the other day was just a test to see how far otm calls they should buy?

A few thoughts

• It's reassuring to know that we'll have an emergency 90 days from now and that the executive will be able to take swift action by announcing its retaliatory tariffs. I'm happy to see the Constitution working as intended.
• Per the image above, the treasury secretary claimed that we were never going to go through with the retaliatory tariffs. It's not like the administration had a lot of credibility to begin with, but this doesn't do it any favors. If this can be believed, however, it indicates that either China was the target of the tariff war (beyond the base 10%) or they happened to be the only country to really push back.
• The 90-day pause sounds suspiciously like the dubious leak mentioned Monday.

The markets may have been excessively euphoric considering that, as things stand, business with China just got twice as expensive. Maybe we'll see the remaining tariffs pause tomorrow when Trump takes calls from Bezos and Walton.

Icommandyou

Markets aren't pricing in shit, it's all just sentiment driven right now

Thank you for your attention to this matter!

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